BKK to the Future

Most people in Thailand are alarmingly clueless about the trends that are shaping their future. This blog hopes to get them clued in.

คนไทยส่วนใหญ่ไม่รู้ เกี่ยวกับแนวโน้ม ที่กำลังส่งผลต่ออนาคตของพวกเขา บล็อกนี้หวังที่จะช่วยให้เขารู้เรื่องขึ้นบ้าง

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Market Your Own Truth

In my younger, more naive days, I used to think people were psychologically predispositioned to recognizing the truth when they saw it. Not so, as this article makes clear.

Persistence of Myths Could Alter Public Policy Approach

By Shankar Vedantam
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 4, 2007; A03

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently issued a flier to combat myths about the flu vaccine. It recited various commonly held views and labeled them either "true" or "false." Among those identified as false were statements such as "The side effects are worse than the flu" and "Only older people need flu vaccine."

When University of Michigan social psychologist Norbert Schwarz had volunteers read the CDC flier, however, he found that within 30 minutes, older people misremembered 28 percent of the false statements as true. Three days later, they remembered 40 percent of the myths as factual.

Younger people did better at first, but three days later they made as many errors as older people did after 30 minutes. Most troubling was that people of all ages now felt that the source of their false beliefs was the respected CDC.

The psychological insights yielded by the research, which has been confirmed in a number of peer-reviewed laboratory experiments, have broad implications for public policy. The conventional response to myths and urban legends is to counter bad information with accurate information. But the new psychological studies show that denials and clarifications, for all their intuitive appeal, can paradoxically contribute to the resiliency of popular myths.

This phenomenon may help explain why large numbers of Americans incorrectly think that Saddam Hussein was directly involved in planning the Sept 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and that most of the Sept. 11 hijackers were Iraqi. While these beliefs likely arose because Bush administration officials have repeatedly tried to connect Iraq with Sept. 11, the experiments suggest that intelligence reports and other efforts to debunk this account may in fact help keep it alive.

Similarly, many in the Arab world are convinced that the destruction of the World Trade Center on Sept. 11 was not the work of Arab terrorists but was a controlled demolition; that 4,000 Jews working there had been warned to stay home that day; and that the Pentagon was struck by a missile rather than a plane.

Those notions remain widespread even though the federal government now runs Web sites in seven languages to challenge them. Karen Hughes, who runs the Bush administration's campaign to win hearts and minds in the fight against terrorism, recently painted a glowing report of the "digital outreach" teams working to counter misinformation and myths by challenging those ideas on Arabic blogs.

A report last year by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, however, found that the number of Muslims worldwide who do not believe that Arabs carried out the Sept. 11 attacks is soaring -- to 59 percent of Turks and Egyptians, 65 percent of Indonesians, 53 percent of Jordanians, 41 percent of Pakistanis and even 56 percent of British Muslims.

Research on the difficulty of debunking myths has not been specifically tested on beliefs about Sept. 11 conspiracies or the Iraq war. But because the experiments illuminate basic properties of the human mind, psychologists such as Schwarz say the same phenomenon is probably implicated in the spread and persistence of a variety of political and social myths.

The research does not absolve those who are responsible for promoting myths in the first place. What the psychological studies highlight, however, is the potential paradox in trying to fight bad information with good information.

Schwarz's study was published this year in the journal Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, but the roots of the research go back decades. As early as 1945, psychologists Floyd Allport and Milton Lepkin found that the more often people heard false wartime rumors, the more likely they were to believe them.

The research is painting a broad new understanding of how the mind works. Contrary to the conventional notion that people absorb information in a deliberate manner, the studies show that the brain uses subconscious "rules of thumb" that can bias it into thinking that false information is true. Clever manipulators can take advantage of this tendency.

The experiments also highlight the difference between asking people whether they still believe a falsehood immediately after giving them the correct information, and asking them a few days later. Long-term memories matter most in public health campaigns or political ones, and they are the most susceptible to the bias of thinking that well-recalled false information is true.

The experiments do not show that denials are completely useless; if that were true, everyone would believe the myths. But the mind's bias does affect many people, especially those who want to believe the myth for their own reasons, or those who are only peripherally interested and are less likely to invest the time and effort needed to firmly grasp the facts.

The research also highlights the disturbing reality that once an idea has been implanted in people's minds, it can be difficult to dislodge. Denials inherently require repeating the bad information, which may be one reason they can paradoxically reinforce it.

Indeed, repetition seems to be a key culprit. Things that are repeated often become more accessible in memory, and one of the brain's subconscious rules of thumb is that easily recalled things are true.

Many easily remembered things, in fact, such as one's birthday or a pet's name, are indeed true. But someone trying to manipulate public opinion can take advantage of this aspect of brain functioning. In politics and elsewhere, this means that whoever makes the first assertion about something has a large advantage over everyone who denies it later.

Furthermore, a new experiment by Kimberlee Weaver at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and others shows that hearing the same thing over and over again from one source can have the same effect as hearing that thing from many different people -- the brain gets tricked into thinking it has heard a piece of information from multiple, independent sources, even when it has not. Weaver's study was published this year in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

The experiments by Weaver, Schwarz and others illustrate another basic property of the mind -- it is not good at remembering when and where a person first learned something. People are not good at keeping track of which information came from credible sources and which came from less trustworthy ones, or even remembering that some information came from the same untrustworthy source over and over again. Even if a person recognizes which sources are credible and which are not, repeated assertions and denials can have the effect of making the information more accessible in memory and thereby making it feel true, said Schwarz.

Experiments by Ruth Mayo, a cognitive social psychologist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, also found that for a substantial chunk of people, the "negation tag" of a denial falls off with time. Mayo's findings were published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology in 2004.

"If someone says, 'I did not harass her,' I associate the idea of harassment with this person," said Mayo, explaining why people who are accused of something but are later proved innocent find their reputations remain tarnished. "Even if he is innocent, this is what is activated when I hear this person's name again.

"If you think 9/11 and Iraq, this is your association, this is what comes in your mind," she added. "Even if you say it is not true, you will eventually have this connection with Saddam Hussein and 9/11."

Mayo found that rather than deny a false claim, it is better to make a completely new assertion that makes no reference to the original myth. Rather than say, as Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) recently did during a marathon congressional debate, that "Saddam Hussein did not attack the United States; Osama bin Laden did," Mayo said it would be better to say something like, "Osama bin Laden was the only person responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks" -- and not mention Hussein at all.

The psychologist acknowledged that such a statement might not be entirely accurate -- issuing a denial or keeping silent are sometimes the only real options.

So is silence the best way to deal with myths? Unfortunately, the answer to that question also seems to be no.

Another recent study found that when accusations or assertions are met with silence, they are more likely to feel true, said Peter Kim, an organizational psychologist at the University of Southern California. He published his study in the Journal of Applied Psychology.

Myth-busters, in other words, have the odds against them.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

โลกชรา

Demographics หรือประชากรศาสตร์เป็นเรื่องหนึ่งที่ดูเหมือนว่านโยบายของไทยไม่เคยให้ความสำคัญ

อาจเป็นเพราะมันเป็นเรื่องระยะยาว ในขณะที่นักวางนโยบายส่วนใหญ่จะคิดแค่ระยะไม่กี่ปีข้างหน้า อย่างมากก็ 5 ปี

สิ่งที่นักคิดนโยบายสาธารณะหลายคนในโลกตะวันตกเป็นห่วงมาสักพักใหญ่แล้ว คือว่าประเทศพัฒนาแล้ว เช่นสหรัฐ ยุโรป ญี่ปุ่น มีแนวโน้มว่าจะเป็น greying society = สังคมหัวหงอก นั่นคือจะมีประชากรที่ส่วนใหญ่เป็นคนแก่ คนในวัยทำงานซึ่งมีน้อยลงกลับจะต้องแบกภาระทางสังคมมากขึ้น กล่าวคือภาษีอากรจากคนหนุ่มสาวจำนวนน้อยจะต้องถูกนำไปช่วยเหลือคนแก่จำนวนมาก เศรษฐกิจก็อาจจะชะลอตัว รัฐอาจไม่มีเงินพอที่จะคอยอุดหนุนช่วยเหลือ อาจต้องเจียดเงินมาจากนโยบายส่วนอื่น

ประเทศกำลังพัฒนาระดับกลางอย่างไทยก็ใช่ว่าจะรอดพ้นจากปรากฏการณ์นี้ ดังนั้นเราคงต้องเริ่มคิดแล้วหละว่าควรจะทำอย่างไร อาจจำเป็นต้องเปิดตัวเองให้กับผู้อพยพมากขึ้น (ซึ่งชาวชาตินิยมทั้งหลายคงคัดค้าน) เลื่อนวัยเกษียณออกไปเพื่อให้มีคนอยู่ในวัยทำงานมากขึ้น ส่งเสริมให้คนมีลูกมากขึ้น ปรับปรุงระบบการศึกษาเพื่อให้คนจำนวนน้อยสามารถสร้างรายไำด้มากขึ้นเพื่อชดเชยจำนวนคนแก่ในสังคม ฯลฯ

America's golden years?
By Mark L. Haas
The Boston Globe
Sunday, September 2, 2007

The world's great powers are growing old. Steep declines in birthrates over the last century and major increases in life expectancy have caused the populations of Britain, China, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, and the United States to age at a substantial rate. This phenomenon will hinder the other major powers challenging America's economic and military dominance, largely because these countries are growing old faster than is the United States. Yet population aging may still threaten America's international security interests.

The scope of the aging process is remarkable. By 2050 at least 20 percent of the citizens in these countries will be over 65; in Japan more than 33 percent will be. China alone will have more than 329 million people over 65. The populations of Germany, Japan, and Russia are expected to shrink significantly. Russia's population is already decreasing by nearly 700,000 people per year.

The aging problem in the other great powers is so severe that, in coming decades, they will lack the resources to overtake America's huge power advantages. Graying populations will hinder countries' economic growth as working-age populations (ages 15 to 64) shrink, and will strain governmental resources as public spending for retirees' pensions and healthcare balloons.

This is true even for China, America's most likely future rival. Indeed, China's economic expansion is already threatened by labor shortages due to population aging. China is also particularly unprepared to pay for the costs of an aging population. The country's elderly have very little savings, the government has set aside little money for their welfare, and the family structure (the traditional form of social security) is weakening. Exploding public elderly care costs are likely to force cuts in all other discretionary spending, including for economic development and defense.

Although America's population is also aging, the United States is in much better shape. The country is the "youngest" of all the Group of Eight nations. Because it has the highest fertility and immigration rates of all the great powers, it will maintain - even strengthen - this position in coming decades. America's working-age population as a result is expected to expand significantly in this period. Compared with other great powers, the United States also has a relatively well-funded pension system; its public welfare commitments to the elderly are modest; its citizens work many more hours per year and significantly later in life; and its tax burden is low.

Although the aging crisis is less severe in the United States than in the other great powers, the challenges arising from this crisis are far from trivial. The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2015, spending on the elderly in the United States will total almost $1.8 trillion - nearly half of the anticipated federal budget. For the United States, healthcare costs are the biggest problem presented by an aging population. America spends more than twice as much per capita in this area than any other industrialized state.

By conservative estimates, absent reforms, the costs of Medicare alone will be at least $2.6 trillion in 2050 in today's dollars - roughly the size of the current U.S. federal budget.

To pay for the massive fiscal costs associated with its aging population, the United States is likely to have to scale back its international policies. America will be less able in the future to dedicate significant resources to preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, financing nation-building, and engaging in humanitarian interventions. So at the same time that global aging will help prevent the rise of great power competitors, this phenomenon may jeopardize other vital U.S. international interests.

To protect its international security, the United States needs to maintain its enviable demographic position. Specifically, it should reduce Social Security and Medicare payments to wealthier citizens, raise the retirement age to reflect increases in life expectancies, maintain largely open immigration policies, and, above all, restrain the rising costs of its healthcare system. A defining political question of the 21st century is whether American leaders have sufficient political will and wisdom to implement these and related policies. Failure to do so will significantly jeopardize future levels of America's global influence and safety.

Mark L. Haas is an assistant professor of political science at Duquesne University and a former fellow at the International Security Program at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. This article first appeared in The Boston Globe.

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

ผลิตหนังสือง่ายยังกะชงกาแฟ

ก็เลยเรียกเครื่องว่า Espresso Book Machine
http://www.publishersweekly.com/article/CA6346866.html

หนังสือที่มีคุณค่าแต่ร้านหนังสือไม่นิยมสต็อกเพราะขายไม่ออกคงจะได้ลืมตาอ้าปากหละคราวนี้

ตอนนี้ธนาคารโลกก็เริ่มนำไปใช้แล้ว
http://web.worldbank.org/servlets/ECR?contentMDK=20884077&contTypePK=217180&folderPK=180294&sitePK=225714&callCR=true

Friday, October 20, 2006

I've Got You Under My (Digital) Skin

Technology is making an alternate reality not only possible, but inevitable. One won't even need cartoon avatars, but can assume fully fleshed out virtual identities, thanks to facial mapping technologies like that being developed by UK-based Image Metrics.

This technology has been developed for movies and videogames. A recent article in the New York Times and an accompanying video clip suggests its potential is far greater.

With some modification, I think anyone using this technology will be able to wear what is in effect a digital mask while video chatting online. The person on the other side will see, not you, but Angelina Jolie or any celebrity whose identity you choose to assume. My guess is that celebrities will license their likenesses, so that any user can impersonate their favorite celeb in video chats, with the proper disclaimers, of course.

And it won't even have to be a face mask. It can be a whole body mask, so you the user can dance and perform other acts for the enjoyment of a remote viewer even if you look like Jabba the Hutt. I suspect that once again porn will drive the technology. If I'm correct, it won't be only celebs who will be able to license their looks to make digital body masks, but any good-looking, fit person. The terms of each license will, of course, make clear whether or not nudity and such is allowed.

And just imagine the implications for politics! The potential for fooling voters would be limited only by politicians' imaginations. Hmm, so I suppose we should be thankful for that.

Saturday, May 13, 2006

At last, a digital bubble for every citizen!

Would you wear video glasses? by ZDNet's Roland Piquepaille -- An Israeli company has developed a personal video display device that looks like a simple pair of glasses. You can use these glasses with various sources, such as a portable media player or your cellphone. And with these glasses weighing only about 40 grams, you'll feel that you're viewing a 40-inch screen from a distance of 7 feet.


Imagine the social ramifications. You could be at Starbucks sipping overpriced latte, while you watch a 3-D movie in complete privacy, thanks to your video glasses and a suitably matched pair of surround headphones. Or you could be typing out your Great American Novel on the beach, thanks to your video glasses and flexible computer keyboard, your waterproofed CPU tucked away in the pocket of your shorts. Gadgets you used to have to stay home for will be downsized so much they will allow you to cocoon anywhere. So we can have a whole room of people, each lost in his own big-screen DTS cocoon. Sort of eerie, really. And if games are developed for the Nintendo Wii for use with the video glasses, heck, the room will look downright creepy.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

How will China's male surplus affect Thailand's future?

I've always been intrigued by the broader implications of China's and India's practices of gender-based foeticide and infanticide.

In Martin Walker's article for Foreign Policy magazine, it seems the chickens are finally coming home to roost.

Recently I had occasion to rub shoulders with a fairly famous Thai economist and asked him his views on this issue. To my surprise, he didn't seem to have much of an opinion on the subject. Read the article and tell me what you think.

ผมสนใจมานานแล้วว่าการที่จีนและอินเดียทำแท้งหรือแม้แต่ฆ่าเด็กอ่อนที่เป็นเพศหญิงจะมีผลในภาพกว้างอย่างไร

ในบทความของมาร์ติน วอล์คเกอร์ที่เขียนลงนิตยสาร Foreign Policy ดูเหมือนว่ากรรมนั้นกำลังเริ่มส่งผลแล้ว (ไปอ่านได้ที่ลิงค์ข้างบนครับ)

เมื่อไม่นานมานี้ผมได้กระทบไหล่กับนักเศรษฐศาสตร์ชาวไทยที่มีชื่อเสียงพอควรและถามความเห็นท่านเกี่ยวกับเรื่องนี้ ผมก็แปลกใจที่ดูเหมือนว่าท่านไม่ค่อยมีความเห็นเกี่ยวกับเรื่องนี้ (อาจเป็นเพราะยังไม่ได้ศึกษาปรากฎการณ์นี้อย่างถี่ถ้วนก็ได้ ก็เลยยังสงวนท่าทีอยู่) ลองไปอ่านบทความที่ว่าดูนะครับ แล้วมาคุยกันซิว่าคุณคิดว่ายังไง

Sunday, May 07, 2006

Welcome to BKK to the Future!

Most people in Thailand are alarmingly clueless about the trends that are shaping their future. This blog hopes to get them clued in.